Q+A: Thinking behind North Korea's missile launches

Mon Oct 12, 2009 9:45pm EDT

By Jon Herskovitz

North Korea's launch of short-range missiles underscored security concerns and helped push Seoul shares lower on Tuesday.

The North may be preparing for additional launches, a report said, after the secretive state fired a barrage of five short-range missiles on Monday.

Here are a few questions and answers about the North's launch plans:

WAS THE LAUNCH A GAME CHANGER IN TERMS OF NUCLEAR

NEGOTIATIONS?

No. The North is not barred by any international agreements from short-range missile launches. The missiles may cause concern among regional powers who are pressing Pyongyang to return to stalled talks on ending its nuclear ambitions but they are not a signal the North has abandoned the disarmament-for-aid talks.

After the launch, the North appeared to have agreed to a calls from the South for inter-Korean Red Cross talks and separate discussions on preventing floods from a river that flows between the two states, indicating it is still ready for dialogue.

SO WHY DID THE NORTH LAUNCH THE MISSILES?

Government officials and analysts are puzzled by the launch that came as the reclusive North has reached out to its traditional adversaries the United States and South Korea. The North's leader, Kim Jong-il, has also indicated his reclusive state was ready to return to nuclear dealings.

The North's short-range missiles launches are for military training and are also timed to send a political message. The message for these launches is still unclear.

Some analysts speculate the North may have wanted to show a firm hand ahead of international nuclear talks. Others said it may have wanted to show its displeasure at a visit to the South Korean coast of a U.S. aircraft carrier group. The North calls such visits "a prelude to invasion."

WHAT WOULD BE A GAME CHANGER?

A launch of ballistic missiles or another nuclear test. A launch of ballistic missiles would violate U.N. resolutions and be considered a deliberate provocation by regional powers including South Korea, Japan and the United States.

A nuclear test would raise the stakes even higher.

HOW BIG A THREAT ARE THE NORTHS MISSILES?

The North has several hundred short-range missiles that can fly up to 150 km (95 miles) in order to hit targets near the Seoul area and ships off its coast.

It also has several hundred ballistic missiles with ranges that can hit all of South Korea and most of Japan.

Most analysts agree North Korea is some time away from building a nuclear warhead small enough to fit on a missile.

(Editing by Nick Macfie)