Q+A: Why is North Korea making nuclear threats?

Fri Sep 4, 2009 12:36am EDT

By Jon Herskovitz

SEOUL (Reuters) - North Korea said on Friday it was closer to achieving a second way of making nuclear weapons, a move analysts saw as a new tactic to put pressure on the international community after a month of conciliatory gestures.

Analysts said the reclusive North's moves to reach out to the world were an attempt to restore aid, especially from South Korea, and ease the blow of U.N. sanctions, imposed after its nuclear test in May and aimed at cutting into its arms trade, a vital source of hard cash.

WHY DID THE NORTH SUDDENLY CHANGE TONE?

The North's announcement does not mean the end of its current cycle of warming ties, but was meant to serve as reminder that Pyongyang could quickly revert to provocations if it felt its overtures were being rebuffed. North Korea wanted to pressure the international community to back down on punishments and be more forthcoming with aid for its good behavior.

The move does not alter the security risk posed by the North, which has previously said it was advancing its uranium enrichment program and extracting plutonium from spent fuel rods.

WHY WAS NORTH KOREA OPENING UP TO THE SOUTH?

The most obvious reason is money.

Impoverished North Korea's estimated $17 billion a year economy, already broken by years of mismanagement and global sanctions, has taken further hits this year from heavy rains that hurt its farm sector and from the loss of aid from the South, which once totaled about $1 billion a year.

The North could see tens of millions of dollars by the end of the year if it resumes stalled tourism and business projects with the South. President Lee Myung-bak would also be under pressure to resume massive food aid to alleviate famine in the North, once reaching 500,000 tons of rice a year, if ties between Pyongyang and Seoul turned less chilly.

WHY IS THE NORTH REACHING OUT TO THE UNITED STATES?

North Korea may be hoping to have direct nuclear talks with the United States and to decrease Washington's push to implement U.N. sanctions.

President Barack Obama's administration has indicated that it will not bend on either of these points, but would allow for bilateral talks on the sidelines of repeatedly stalled six-way discussions.

IF U.S. PUSH WON'T WORK, WHY DOES THE NORTH BOTHER?

The North's conciliatory tone may sit well with neighbor China, the closest Pyongyang can claim as a major ally, and more importantly, the country that has the greatest influence on how effectively U.N. sanctions are enforced.

It particular, it wants to ease the impact of sanctions on one of cash-starved North Korea's important sources of foreign currency with estimates saying they are worth about 6 percent of its yearly GDP.

WILL THE MOVES HAVE ANY IMPACT ON STALLED NUCLEAR TALKS?

Analysts expect no breakthrough in the talks among the two Koreas, China, Japan, Russia and the United States. Pyongyang has repeatedly said it sees that process as dead and signaled it wants to talk directly with Washington.

But Pyongyang could agree to a token resumption of the talks, which would please China, host of the often-stalled discussions. Or, there might be a deal leading to three-way nuclear talks among China, the United States and North Korea, which would also please Beijing.

WHY DOES THE NORTH NEED THE MONEY?

North Korea uses foreign currency to buy items abroad for its military and nuclear programs as well as to purchase perks for its ruling elite and the military.

Leader Kim Jong-il, 67, has moved forward with his succession plans after he apparently suffered a stroke a year ago and needs the backing of powerful military and Communist Party figures to secure a smooth path to power for his designated heir, his youngest son, analysts said.

(Additional reporting by Christine Kim, editing by Ron Popeski)