EAST ASIA: Top Ten World Stories to Watch in 2010

Posted on January 4th, 2010

Nobody really knows what will happen in 2010, although Larry Sabato’s Jeanne Dixon-inspired post at Politico comes pretty close. But there are ten stories that will shape the world this year — for better or for worse. Other crises may erupt (I have not, for example, included the long-running conflict between Israelis and Palestinians on the list), but these ten stories as they develop are most likely going to be the events that determine what kind of year 2010 will be.

10. The New Japan

The Democratic Party of Japan government under Prime Minister Yuko Hatoyama is the first strong non-LDP government in Japan since the MacArthur era. It came to office promising dramatic changes in everything from Japan’s bureaucratically-dominated governing system to U.S.-Japan relations–while getting the economy back on track. Any one of these would be a tough job, and with restive coalition partners and many inexperienced politicians tasting real power for the first time, the government has hit some obstacles. Japan is still the world’s second largest economy and despite its pacifist constitution it remains a top military spender. The success or the failure of the DPJ over the next year may not be as dramatic as political stories in other parts of the world–but it matters a lot. The relationship between the United States and Japan has been the cornerstone of stability in Asia for more than fifty years; let’s see what happens now.


9. The EU After Lisbon

It took almost as long for the EU to get its new non-constitution ratifiied as it took the United States to get from the Declaration of Independence to our own first constitutional president in 1789. Now the Treaty of Lisbon has gone into effect, providing for a unified European foreign service headed by a kind of EU foreign minister and a new EU president (or chair, depending on how the relevant articles are translated into English). Now the Europeans and the rest of us will begin to find out if all this work has made any difference. So far, the signs are not good; European diplomacy was completely ineffective at the Copenhagen summit on climate change–an issue which Europe thought that it owned. Europe now faces some of the most important and frightening issues in its history. Greece today and potentially Spain, Italy and Ireland in the not-so-distant future might threaten the stability of the common European currency. Turkey is increasingly dissatisfied with European resistance to its bid to join the Union. Within Europe, problems with immigrants continue to grow and beyond it events in the Arab world, Russia and Iran could plunge it into crises over which it has little control. In 2010 we will see whether, post-Lisbon, Europe is getting its act together or whether it continues to punch well below its weight in world affairs.


8. Turkey in Transition

Turkey may be the only European country whose geopolitical importance has dramatically grown since the end of the Cold War. In relations between the West and the world of Islam, Turkey can play a crucial mediating role–or it can help bring on the ‘clash of civilizations’ most of us still hope to avoid. Torn between secular, religious and liberal politics, Turkey is undergoing culture wars as bitter as, if not more than, anything we have in the US. Turkish policy and politics make a lot of difference in Iran, Iraq and the Caucasus. Turkey can help or hurt efforts to promote peace between Israel and its neighbors; Turkey has a significant role to play in the changing relationship between Russia and the West. Keep your eyes on Turkey; what happens here will affect a range of important world issues.

7. The Crisis in Global Governance

One lesson from the Copenhagen conference is that the system of global governance is melting down faster than an iceberg in Ecuador. It isn’t just the climate conference; the global trade system is in deep disarray. The WTO has been struggling since the Clinton administration to produce a new global trade agreement: no end is in view. The old institutions and clubs (like NATO and the G-7) don’t have the clout to make their decisions stick; the new ones (like the G-20) still don’t work very well. Banking regulation, public health, immigration, the environment, trade: there are more and more problems that can only be properly addressed by countries working together, and many of the key institutions are working less and less well. Will the world make progress on developing new frameworks for cooperative action, or at least find a way to work around the institutional problems that have blocked progress in the past?


6. The U.S. and China

Whether you think economically, geopolitically or militarily, the U.S.-China relationship will shape the kind of year we all have in 2010. The complicated economic interdependence of these major world players is so unprecedented and is changing so rapidly that neither side quite understands how it works. The very different historical experiences, systems of government and cultural frameworks of the two countries make it hard for them to understand and therefore to trust one another.

Fortunately, they share a set of extremely important common interests and so far this has helped keep relations on track. That relationship is sure to be tested in 2010; China is becoming more assertive as it drinks the heady wine of economic success. Japan went through a similar phase before its bubble burst a generation ago; this year we will watch both the United States and China struggle with a relationship that neither really wants but that neither can do without. For now.

5. The Balance of Power in Asia

It’s been a while since non-specialists spent much time thinking about the balance of power in key geopolitical regions of the world. For the last twenty years most people have thought about questions like ‘world order’ and the rise of democracy. The balance of power is coming back in 2010, though hopefully not with a bang. As China, India, Japan and the United States look warily at each other, it’s clear that no single power can hope to dominate East and South Asia right now. But what the Asian pecking order will be, and how it will be determined, are still up for grabs. Will Japan and India form a partnership with backing from the United States? Will Japan seek to deepen ties with China–even as Chinese-Indian relations become more strained? Changing relations among the Big Four will lead to responses from Asia’s many important second level powers: Vietnam, Australia, Indonesia, Malaysia and so on. And of course we can always count on North Korea to do something annoying. Americans who take foreign news seriously are going to have to learn to follow this story; it will likely be on the top ten list again next year.


4. Pakistan

The world’s unhappiest and least stable nuclear state will stay at the forefront again this year. The Pakistani military is deeply committed to a profoundly unrealistic conception of the country’s interests and identity. Its leading civilian politicians are both incompetent and corrupt. Failures of governance have left much of the country poorly educated and poorly positioned to take advantage of the kind of economic opportunities that are leading its neighbor and rival India to new heights of power and prestige. Deep seated regional antagonisms periodically threaten the country’s ability to hold together. Nobody in Pakistan or outside of it seems to have the least idea about what to do. The Pakistanis are surprisingly good at managing things day by day, but it’s hard to ignore the increasing evidence that this country, which deserves much better, is trapped in a dead end of history. The decline of Pakistan, its effects on Pakistan’s neighborhood and on US policy, will likely continue to be a major concern all year long.


3. America at War

The United States is fighting two shooting wars in Asia and, as we were all unhappily reminded on December 25, fighting a shadowy conflict with a collection of ugly religious nutcases who will stop at nothing to murder U.S. civilians whenever they can. How the United States navigates the military challenges of its wars together with the political challenges at home and abroad will be one of the top stories of 2010. If things go well, by the end of the year we will see the U.S. headed out of an increasingly stabilized and recovering Iraq with at least the beginnings of some real progress in Afghanistan. We will also see progress against Al-Qaeda not only in the hills of the AfPak border regions but more broadly in the accelerated disruption of its international networks and in the continued hardening of Islamic opinion against this fanatical cult.

2. The Global Economy

2010 will determine whether the world dodged the bullet of the great 2008-2009 financial crisis. In a best case scenario, the recovery that started in 2009 will accelerate and by the end of the year most if not all of the world’s major economies will be looking at faster growth rates and better fiscal projections than anyone now expects. Unemployment will be falling even as fiscal and monetary stimulus is eased back and stock markets will begin to close in on their all time highs in the United States. Or not. Either way, all eyes will be riveted on economic performance this year; without continuing recovery all the other problems just get worse.

1. Iran and the World

By the end of 2010 we should now more about where this one is headed. Domestically, either the regime marginalizes or crushes the opposition, or its power and legitimacy are permanently impaired. Internationally, this will also be a year of decision. Some observers predict Israeli strikes as early as the spring. Others are less alarmist. One thing to remember: Israeli airstrikes against Iran could well lead to Iranian retaliation against American targets and not just Israeli ones in the region. Iranian attacks on U.S. forces in Iraq, Afghanistan or the Persian Gulf, or Iranian-backed terrorism elsewhere would put the Obama administration in a nasty corner. Returning Iranian fire would involve the United States in a potentially open-ended conflict; failing to return fire would be deeply unpopular in the United States.

Wild Cards to Watch For:

•King Bhumibol Adulyadej, the widely-revered King of Thailand, celebrated his 83rd birthday on December 5, and his health has been poor. Since World War II, the sagacious monarch has helped stabilize Thai politics and served as the focus of national identity. Thailand today is experiencing its most serious and complicated political crisis since the present King ascended the throne in 1946; it is not clear that anyone else in the royal family has the prestige and the experience to step into his shoes. The king’s departure from the political scene could set off destabilizing unrest that could worsen Thailand’s economic problems, strand tens of thousands of foreign tourists, and in a worst case scenario could pit China and the United States against one another with each side backing different Thai factions in what could become both a bloody and strategically important contest.

•The economy of Cuba continues on a downward trend. Although the island’s government has managed the transition from Fidel to Raul very smoothly, all is not well. The Cuban economy is propped up by subsidies from the mercurial and viscerally anti-Yanqui Hugo Chavez; the political strings attached to this support helped ensure that Cuba could not respond positively to the Obama administration’s attempts to ‘reset’ the relationship. The most likely outlook in 2010 is for more of the same, but the historically volatile people of this tempestuous island could surprise us all, and serious unrest in Cuba would present the Obama administration (and the rest of the region) with some difficult problems.

•Russia remains an angry, dissatisfied presence on the international scene. The potential for violence in its Islamic borderlands and among its unstable neighbors remains high. Russia might well move quickly and surprisingly in response to perceived opportunities or threats in its region; remember its 2008 war with Georgia.