Wednesday, February 13, 2013
TRAVEL: How Do You Document Your Trips?
Twitter users tells us their favorite ways of saving and sharing travel memories.
TRAVEL: Lost in Translation? Try a Google App
On a trip to China, the Frugal Traveler put Google Translate to the test. Here’s what he learned and how it could help you.
NE ASIA: Obama speaks to JAPAN's Abe about NORTH KOREA's nuclear test
WASHINGTON (Reuters) - President Barack Obama spoke to Japan's Prime Minister Shinzo Abe on Wednesday about North Korea's nuclear test and reaffirmed U.S. commitments to Japan's security, the White House said in a statement.
GUAM: Knifeman kills two in Guam attack
A man wielding a knife kills at least two Japanese tourists and injures 11 in the US Pacific territory of Guam, officials say.
CHINA: Depressing landmark reached, 100th Tibetan self-immolates
An exiled Tibetan monk set himself on fire in a Kathmandu restaurant on Wednesday, becoming the 100th person to attempt to self-immolate in protest against Chinese rule over Tibet since 2009.
Tuesday, February 12, 2013
HONG KONG TV Drama Plays Out Uneasy Ties With CHINA
A Hong Kong series has tapped into the tensions between the city's residents and mainland Chinese visitors, striking a nerve on both sides of the border and drawing the attention of Chinese censors.
NORTH KOREA: 5 things to watch after North Korea's nuclear test
At about 3:30 zulu time, radio hobbyists monitoring a U.S. military frequency (4724z) noted a 249 character emergency action message emanating from Yokota Air Base. At about the same time, seismic stations across the world picked up an earthquake of magnitude 5.1. The point of origin seemed to be a swath of land on the Korean peninsula where North Korea has previously tested nuclear weapons. A few hours later, the North Korean official news agency confirmed what the electromagnetic spectrum (and numerous U.S. spy satellites and sensors) already reported: it had set off a controlled underground...
More
More
Monday, February 11, 2013
NORTH KOREA Is Suspected of Conducting 3rd Nuclear Test
Korea appeared to set off a nuclear test on Tuesday, American and Asian officials said, and preliminary estimates suggested it was far larger than the previous two conducted by the North.
MALAYSIA: K-pop sensation Psy dances into Malaysia's political drama, Gangnam style (+video)
In an effort to jazz the youth vote in Malaysia ahead of elections in which it faces a very strong opposition, the government called in K-pop sensation Psy.
U.S., SOUTH KOREA flex military muscles
CNN's Anna Coren reports on U.S. and South Korea military drills.
CHINA: I nose what to do with this snake... Performer snorts reptile
Most people celebrate Chinese New Year by watching a fireworks display or a lion dance.
However, this performer decided to welcome the New Year by inserting a live snake through his nose before pulling it out of his mouth during a performance at the Ditan Temple Fair celebrating the Chinese Lunar New Year in Beijing on February 9, 2013.
The Lunar New Year, or Spring Festival, marks the start of the Year of the Snake, according to the Chinese zodiac.
Various snake toys were on sale at the fair in Ditan Park, which was attended by thousands of families.
However, this performer decided to welcome the New Year by inserting a live snake through his nose before pulling it out of his mouth during a performance at the Ditan Temple Fair celebrating the Chinese Lunar New Year in Beijing on February 9, 2013.
The Lunar New Year, or Spring Festival, marks the start of the Year of the Snake, according to the Chinese zodiac.
Various snake toys were on sale at the fair in Ditan Park, which was attended by thousands of families.
Sunday, February 10, 2013
AUSTRALIA: Big croc pulled from Darwin Harbour
RANGERS have removed a 4.3m croc from a trap in West Arm.
RUSSIA & the Sochi Olympics: Gold medals for some
HOSTING the Olympic games has long come with the extra attention–some welcome, some not–that the world’s largest sporting event naturally brings. In July 2007, when Russia won the right to host the 2014 Winter Games in the Black Sea resort of Sochi, President Vladimir Putin and other officials celebrated the decision as a victory for Russia and, as Mr Putin said, “a judgment of our country”.Once the home of grand but faded Soviet-era sanatoria, Sochi has been transformed into a gleaming showpiece of a revitalized, confident Russia—some even term it the country own “little Monaco”. Most of the Olympic projects are nearing completion, and Mr Putin is set to meet with IOC officials in Sochi this week as they mark the official countdown to the start of the Games next February.The tens of thousands of migrant workers toiling at the Olympic venues and other sites have less to celebrate, according to a 67-page report published today by Human Rights Watch. It documents multiple cases of workplace abuse and exploitation: non-payment of promised wages, 12-hour shifts with few or no days off, confiscation of travel and identity documents, and breach or withholding of employment contracts.Most of those interviewed by HRW researchers worked on Sochi’s “coastal cluster”, site of the main 40,000-seat stadium, five ice arenas, the central Olympic Village, hotels and other ...
CHINA Signals Drive to Tackle Income Gap
The breadth of a plan to narrow China's income gap, and the fact that it came out at all, heightened the sentiment that China's leaders may take on powerful interests quickly rather than trying to reach a broad consensus first.
JAPAN suggests hotline to CHINE over island spat
Japan has suggested setting up a military hotline with China to avoid clashes between the two countries, which are at loggerheads over a group of disputed islands, Tokyo’s defence minister said on Saturday.
The proposal came after Tokyo accused a Chinese frigate of locking its weapons-tracking radar on a Japanese destroyer - a claim Beijing has denied.
PNG: U.N. Calls on Papua New Guinea to Curb Violence After Burning Death of Woman
The killing of a woman accused of sorcery is part of a pattern of vigilante attacks in the country, the United Nations human rights office said on Friday.
Saturday, February 9, 2013
CHINA's 'Trial of the Century' Will Be a Dud—and That's the Point
What Bo Xilai's upcoming trial says about the evolution of China's legal system.
China's then-Commerce Minister Bo Xilai addresses a conference in 2005. Bo is expected to stand trial this year for his involvement in the murder of Neil Haywood in Chongqing, China. (Philippe Wojaze/Reuters)
Just over a year ago, the then-police chief of Chongqing, China, Wang Lijun, fled to the nearby city of Chengdu in a desperate attempt to defect to the United States. While he didn't succeed in escaping
China, he did manage to unleash the country's biggest political scandal in decades; a titillating affair which led to the spectacular downfall of one of China's best-known and most ambitious political figures.
At the time of Wang's flight, Bo Xilai was the crusading Party Secretary of Chongqing and the architect of a populist revival that seemed poised to launch him into the Standing Committee of the Politburo, China's highest political office. Now Bo -- stripped of his position, his membership in the Communist Party, and his freedom -- awaits trial for his involvement in the murder of British businessman Neil Haywood, who perished after apparently being poisoned by Bo's wife.
As is typical in China's opaque criminal justice system, no one knows when or where Bo's trial will be held -- or even where Bo himself is waiting. This much, though, is certain: Bo's trial will be the most high-profile in China since The Gang of Four were convicted in 1981. And while the two trials may share a similar notoriety, the distinct circumstances around them encapsulate how much China has changed in the last three decades.
Little known outside China, the Gang of Four refers to the quartet of officials who assumed de facto control of the country during the chaotic Cultural Revolution. Following a decade of horror, stagnation, political upheavals, and mass persecutions -- all under the nominal leadership of an increasingly senile Chairman Mao - the four were arrested following Mao's death in 1976. Four years later, The Gang of Four were summoned to stand trial in front of a special tribunal in Beijing.
The trial was a spectacle from the start. Gang leader Jiang Qing - Mao's widow - proved to be a feisty defendant, as the NYU China legal expert Jerome A. Cohen, who watched the proceedings on television, recently remembered:
Though an outsized character not cast in the mold of the bland Chiense politician, Bo is unlikely to be as defiant as Jiang Qing. First, the Gang of Four trial was no ordinary proceeding; the Chinese government created a special tribunal to deal with the country's prior regime -- the very regime that had imprisoned its successor and had wrought tremendous damage across the entire country. The trial was televised because "it was a clear opportunity for the government to state, definitively, that the Cultural Revolution had ended, that this was a clear break from the past, and that the politicized struggle sessions had come to an end," says Professor Carl Minzer, an expert in Chinese legal history at Fordham University.
The Bo Xilai trial, on the other hand, is an affirmation of, rather than a repudiation of, the regime. Although Bo was a deeply driven individual who had great political ambition, he was at heart an establishment figure working from within the existing norms of the Communist Party. Professor Jacques deLisle, an expert in Chinese law at the University of Pennsylvania, summed up the differences between the two trials in this way: "The Gang of Four had run the show and were being replaced by their victims. Nobody thinks Bo wanted to actually run the show."
The Bo Xilai trial, when it finally unfolds, will be sure to attract significant media attention from around the world. Yet unlike with the Gang of Four trial, the Chinese government will do little to publicize the proceedings. If Chinese judicial history is any indication, the trial will be speedy and decisive, an expeditious execution of "justice" that will fit neatly into China's current legal norms. For a "trial of the century", it is sure to disappoint. And that, in China, is precisely the idea.
China's then-Commerce Minister Bo Xilai addresses a conference in 2005. Bo is expected to stand trial this year for his involvement in the murder of Neil Haywood in Chongqing, China. (Philippe Wojaze/Reuters)Just over a year ago, the then-police chief of Chongqing, China, Wang Lijun, fled to the nearby city of Chengdu in a desperate attempt to defect to the United States. While he didn't succeed in escaping
China, he did manage to unleash the country's biggest political scandal in decades; a titillating affair which led to the spectacular downfall of one of China's best-known and most ambitious political figures.
At the time of Wang's flight, Bo Xilai was the crusading Party Secretary of Chongqing and the architect of a populist revival that seemed poised to launch him into the Standing Committee of the Politburo, China's highest political office. Now Bo -- stripped of his position, his membership in the Communist Party, and his freedom -- awaits trial for his involvement in the murder of British businessman Neil Haywood, who perished after apparently being poisoned by Bo's wife.
As is typical in China's opaque criminal justice system, no one knows when or where Bo's trial will be held -- or even where Bo himself is waiting. This much, though, is certain: Bo's trial will be the most high-profile in China since The Gang of Four were convicted in 1981. And while the two trials may share a similar notoriety, the distinct circumstances around them encapsulate how much China has changed in the last three decades.
Little known outside China, the Gang of Four refers to the quartet of officials who assumed de facto control of the country during the chaotic Cultural Revolution. Following a decade of horror, stagnation, political upheavals, and mass persecutions -- all under the nominal leadership of an increasingly senile Chairman Mao - the four were arrested following Mao's death in 1976. Four years later, The Gang of Four were summoned to stand trial in front of a special tribunal in Beijing.
The trial was a spectacle from the start. Gang leader Jiang Qing - Mao's widow - proved to be a feisty defendant, as the NYU China legal expert Jerome A. Cohen, who watched the proceedings on television, recently remembered:
Jiang asked: "Can a defense lawyer take my place so I don't have to come to court?" When the court president said this would not be possible, Jiang snapped back: "Then I don't want one." Shortly thereafter, she had to be temporarily removed from the courtroom for obstreperous behavior, and the trial went downhill.Ultimately, the Gang of Four were convicted of a range of crimes and subsequently imprisoned. All four have since died.
Though an outsized character not cast in the mold of the bland Chiense politician, Bo is unlikely to be as defiant as Jiang Qing. First, the Gang of Four trial was no ordinary proceeding; the Chinese government created a special tribunal to deal with the country's prior regime -- the very regime that had imprisoned its successor and had wrought tremendous damage across the entire country. The trial was televised because "it was a clear opportunity for the government to state, definitively, that the Cultural Revolution had ended, that this was a clear break from the past, and that the politicized struggle sessions had come to an end," says Professor Carl Minzer, an expert in Chinese legal history at Fordham University.
The Bo Xilai trial, on the other hand, is an affirmation of, rather than a repudiation of, the regime. Although Bo was a deeply driven individual who had great political ambition, he was at heart an establishment figure working from within the existing norms of the Communist Party. Professor Jacques deLisle, an expert in Chinese law at the University of Pennsylvania, summed up the differences between the two trials in this way: "The Gang of Four had run the show and were being replaced by their victims. Nobody thinks Bo wanted to actually run the show."
The Bo Xilai trial, when it finally unfolds, will be sure to attract significant media attention from around the world. Yet unlike with the Gang of Four trial, the Chinese government will do little to publicize the proceedings. If Chinese judicial history is any indication, the trial will be speedy and decisive, an expeditious execution of "justice" that will fit neatly into China's current legal norms. For a "trial of the century", it is sure to disappoint. And that, in China, is precisely the idea.
Friday, February 8, 2013
NORTH KOREA Covers Tunnel Entrance at Nuclear Test Site
After threatening to conduct a nuclear test, North Korea is keeping intelligence analysts guessing when a blast might occur.
CHINESE NEW YEAR Photos: Trying to Make Snakes Cute and Cuddly
On Saturday, the auspicious Year of the Dragon will give way to the Year of the Snake, a somewhat less auspicious symbol that’s hard to warm up to. In Hong Kong, some vendors are going to great lengths to disguise snakes to make them look as cute as possible. Here’s what they’ve come up with.
AUSTRALIA: Julia Gillard Rolls the Dice
U.S. President Barack Obama won re-election despite a poor economy. Can his center-left counterpart from Down Under, Australian Prime Minister Julia Gillard, do likewise this year despite the business cycle turning against her?
Launching the nation’s longest ever election campaign with a poll date of September 14th, the Labor leader sought to clear the air and put the focus back on policy.
"The benefit of fixing the date now is not just the end of speculation about election timing. It gives shape and order to year," Gillard said, urging the rival parties to “lay out their fully-detailed costed plans for the timely consideration of voters”.
Political gamble backfires
Trailing the conservative Liberal-National Coalition in the polls, Gillard’s gamble almost immediately backfired.
Just a day after her announcement, former Labor lawmaker Craig Thomson was arrested over alleged misuse of his former trade union’s funds for prostitutes, air travel and entertainment.
Along with the uproar over the departure of former parliamentary Speaker Peter Slipper, the Thomson scandal gave the Opposition more ammunition in its attacks on the prime minister’s credibility.
If the campaign started badly, it quickly got worse when two senior cabinet ministers announced their resignations two days later, adding to the uncertainty surrounding the minority Labor government.
Polls show Opposition Leader Tony Abbott would win office comfortably if an election were held today, with Labor forecasted to lose up to 18 seats in the national Parliament.
Economy faltering?
“It’s the economy, stupid” might have been Bill Clinton’s famous line, but in Australia the Coalition has made the most ground from its economic credentials and not its leftish opponent.
Despite likely undergoing its 22nd straight year of economic expansion in 2013, Australia’s faltering housing market and mining industry downturn have raised the prospect of weaker growth ahead.
On Friday, the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) added to Gillard’s political gloom by downgrading its forecast for economic growth to 2.5 percent in 2013, a full percentage point lower than the previous year.
Despite the much talked about switching from growth in mining to other sectors such as construction, the central bank was less confident about the outlook.
“While the underlying drivers of investment are supportive of growth, the absence of any clear indications of a pick-up in non-mining investment means that the outlook remains quite uncertain,” the RBA noted.
The bank said unemployment would “drift gradually higher” while business investment would cool, with the economy set to grow below the long-run average of around 3 percent until the end of 2014.
After abandoning its previous pledge of a budget surplus, the government’s fiscal problems have also increased with its admission of a shortfall in revenues from the new tax on mining profits.
Forecast to generate $2 billion this fiscal year, the minerals resource rent tax (MRRT) only collected $126 million in its first six months of operation. The politically costly tax was watered down after its original version cost former Prime Minister Kevin Rudd his job.
Campaign rate hike?
The RBA’s bearishness came despite it leaving interest rate settings unchanged at its first monetary policy meeting of the year on Tuesday.
Holding the official cash rate at 3 percent, Governor Glenn Stevens said the previous “substantial easing of policy” in 2012 had made another decrease unnecessary, with global downside risks said to have abated.
Yet former RBA board member Warwick McKibbin warned that the central bank might rock the government’s re-election prospects with a rate hike before the poll, should global economic conditions continue to improve.
“We’ve been adjusting monetary policy in Australia…partly in anticipation of a bad outcome in the world,” McKibbin told the Australian Financial Review.
“Now if that outcome hasn’t occurred, then you really have to get back up to where you should have been, which is closer to 4 percent than 3 percent.”
The RBA’s decision to increase rates weeks ahead of the 2007 election was considered to have help cost longstanding leader John Howard the election, catapulting his Labor opponent Rudd into the Lodge.
“You would never have predicted a rate increase during the 2007 election,” McKibbin said. “I think they will do the right thing if they have to [in 2013].”
Ironically, media commentators have speculated that Labor could call on its former leader to replace the woman who betrayed him, should the poor polls continue. With the economy softening and the RBA potentially helping the Opposition, will history repeat itself at the ultimate cost to the nation’s first elected female leader?
Launching the nation’s longest ever election campaign with a poll date of September 14th, the Labor leader sought to clear the air and put the focus back on policy.
"The benefit of fixing the date now is not just the end of speculation about election timing. It gives shape and order to year," Gillard said, urging the rival parties to “lay out their fully-detailed costed plans for the timely consideration of voters”.
Political gamble backfires
Trailing the conservative Liberal-National Coalition in the polls, Gillard’s gamble almost immediately backfired.
Just a day after her announcement, former Labor lawmaker Craig Thomson was arrested over alleged misuse of his former trade union’s funds for prostitutes, air travel and entertainment.
Along with the uproar over the departure of former parliamentary Speaker Peter Slipper, the Thomson scandal gave the Opposition more ammunition in its attacks on the prime minister’s credibility.
If the campaign started badly, it quickly got worse when two senior cabinet ministers announced their resignations two days later, adding to the uncertainty surrounding the minority Labor government.
Polls show Opposition Leader Tony Abbott would win office comfortably if an election were held today, with Labor forecasted to lose up to 18 seats in the national Parliament.
Economy faltering?
“It’s the economy, stupid” might have been Bill Clinton’s famous line, but in Australia the Coalition has made the most ground from its economic credentials and not its leftish opponent.
Despite likely undergoing its 22nd straight year of economic expansion in 2013, Australia’s faltering housing market and mining industry downturn have raised the prospect of weaker growth ahead.
On Friday, the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) added to Gillard’s political gloom by downgrading its forecast for economic growth to 2.5 percent in 2013, a full percentage point lower than the previous year.
Despite the much talked about switching from growth in mining to other sectors such as construction, the central bank was less confident about the outlook.
“While the underlying drivers of investment are supportive of growth, the absence of any clear indications of a pick-up in non-mining investment means that the outlook remains quite uncertain,” the RBA noted.
The bank said unemployment would “drift gradually higher” while business investment would cool, with the economy set to grow below the long-run average of around 3 percent until the end of 2014.
After abandoning its previous pledge of a budget surplus, the government’s fiscal problems have also increased with its admission of a shortfall in revenues from the new tax on mining profits.
Forecast to generate $2 billion this fiscal year, the minerals resource rent tax (MRRT) only collected $126 million in its first six months of operation. The politically costly tax was watered down after its original version cost former Prime Minister Kevin Rudd his job.
Campaign rate hike?
The RBA’s bearishness came despite it leaving interest rate settings unchanged at its first monetary policy meeting of the year on Tuesday.
Holding the official cash rate at 3 percent, Governor Glenn Stevens said the previous “substantial easing of policy” in 2012 had made another decrease unnecessary, with global downside risks said to have abated.
Yet former RBA board member Warwick McKibbin warned that the central bank might rock the government’s re-election prospects with a rate hike before the poll, should global economic conditions continue to improve.
“We’ve been adjusting monetary policy in Australia…partly in anticipation of a bad outcome in the world,” McKibbin told the Australian Financial Review.
“Now if that outcome hasn’t occurred, then you really have to get back up to where you should have been, which is closer to 4 percent than 3 percent.”
The RBA’s decision to increase rates weeks ahead of the 2007 election was considered to have help cost longstanding leader John Howard the election, catapulting his Labor opponent Rudd into the Lodge.
“You would never have predicted a rate increase during the 2007 election,” McKibbin said. “I think they will do the right thing if they have to [in 2013].”
Ironically, media commentators have speculated that Labor could call on its former leader to replace the woman who betrayed him, should the poor polls continue. With the economy softening and the RBA potentially helping the Opposition, will history repeat itself at the ultimate cost to the nation’s first elected female leader?
U.S.-CHINA Relations: Key Data Points from Pew Research
American public opinion has shifted in favor of getting tougher with China when it comes to economic and trade policy.
In March 2011, a majority of Americans (53%) said strengthening relations with China was more important, while 40% favored getting tougher with China on economic policy. That changed in 2012 — a year in which U.S.-China trade became an issue in the presidential campaign. In our October 2012 survey, 49% prioritized getting tougher with China, while 42% said it was more important to strengthen relations.
Republicans were the strongest advocates of a get-tough policy with 65% favoring that course. In comparison, a majority of Democrats (53%) said the priority should be strengthening relations compared with 39% who wanted to get tougher with China. Independents were divided: 47% favored a get-tough approach while 44% said it was more important to work on building stronger relations.
The shifting views of U.S.-China relations came against a backdrop in which perceptions of China’s rising economic power continued to grow around the world.
Looking at 14 countries in spring 2012 that are surveyed regularly by the Pew Research Center, a median of 42% said they believed China was the world’s leading economic power compared with 36% who said it was the U.S. Before the onset of the 2008 financial crisis, 45% had named the U.S. as the top economic power while just 22% said China.
Americans are more concerned about China’s economic strength than about its military strength.
About two-thirds of Americans distrust China and see it as a competitor.
At the same time, the Chinese public has taken a dimmer view of the U.S.
The top three economic concerns that Americans have about China are the large amount of U.S. debt that it holds, the loss of jobs to China and the trade deficit.
Some U.S. media companies recently said they were targeted by Chinese hackers. While the issue of cyber attacks from China was a lesser concern among the general public, it rated higher on the list of foreign affairs experts in the survey.
There are partisan differences among the U.S. public over which issues with China are of the most concern.
Republicans are more concerned than Democrats about economic issues related to China, while Democrats and independents are more likely than Republicans to say China’s impact on the global environment is a major problem.
Read more Pew Research reports on China, including these reports:
U.S. Public, Experts Differ on China Policies
Public Favors Tough U.S. Stance on Iran, China
In March 2011, a majority of Americans (53%) said strengthening relations with China was more important, while 40% favored getting tougher with China on economic policy. That changed in 2012 — a year in which U.S.-China trade became an issue in the presidential campaign. In our October 2012 survey, 49% prioritized getting tougher with China, while 42% said it was more important to strengthen relations.
Republicans were the strongest advocates of a get-tough policy with 65% favoring that course. In comparison, a majority of Democrats (53%) said the priority should be strengthening relations compared with 39% who wanted to get tougher with China. Independents were divided: 47% favored a get-tough approach while 44% said it was more important to work on building stronger relations.
The shifting views of U.S.-China relations came against a backdrop in which perceptions of China’s rising economic power continued to grow around the world.
Looking at 14 countries in spring 2012 that are surveyed regularly by the Pew Research Center, a median of 42% said they believed China was the world’s leading economic power compared with 36% who said it was the U.S. Before the onset of the 2008 financial crisis, 45% had named the U.S. as the top economic power while just 22% said China.
Americans are more concerned about China’s economic strength than about its military strength.
About two-thirds of Americans distrust China and see it as a competitor.
At the same time, the Chinese public has taken a dimmer view of the U.S.
The top three economic concerns that Americans have about China are the large amount of U.S. debt that it holds, the loss of jobs to China and the trade deficit.
Some U.S. media companies recently said they were targeted by Chinese hackers. While the issue of cyber attacks from China was a lesser concern among the general public, it rated higher on the list of foreign affairs experts in the survey.
There are partisan differences among the U.S. public over which issues with China are of the most concern.
Republicans are more concerned than Democrats about economic issues related to China, while Democrats and independents are more likely than Republicans to say China’s impact on the global environment is a major problem.
U.S. Public, Experts Differ on China Policies
Public Favors Tough U.S. Stance on Iran, China
New JAPAN-CHINA Air Tensions: Smog
In a new spat between China and Japan, Japanese officials and media are suggesting China's latest air-pollution crisis may be spreading across the East China Sea into Japan.
CHINA's great migration from 'Hukou Hell'
AT this very moment, in a major Chinese city, a worker is boarding a train home.
Thursday, February 7, 2013
CHINA intensifies crackdown on Tibetan burnings, detains 70
BEIJING (Reuters) - Chinese authorities have detained 70 people in a crackdown on self-immolations in ethnic Tibetan regions, state media said on Thursday, the largest single reported sweep of suspects to date as the government tries to stop the unrest.
7 Reasons CHINA and JAPAN Won’t Go To War
The sequel seldom improves on the original. Yet Shinzo Abe, Japan’s newly re-elected prime minister, has already displayed more conviction during his second spell at the Kantei than in the entire year of his first, unhappy premiership.
Political energy is a plus only when it’s wisely deployed however, and some fear that Abe is picking a fight he can’t win when it comes to his hardline stance on China.
Rather than attempting to soothe the tensions that built between Beijing and Tokyo in 2012, Abe has struck a combative tone, especially concerning their dispute over the Senkaku/Diaoyu Islands – a keystone for nationalists in both countries. Each time fighter aircraft are scrambled or ships are sent to survey the likely flashpoint, we hear more warnings about the approach of a war that China and Japan now seem almost eager to wage. The Economist, for example,recently observed that, “China and Japan are sliding towards war,” while Hugh White of the Australian National University warned his readers:
“Don't be too surprised if the U.S. and Japan go to war with China [in 2013].” News this week of another reckless act of escalation – Chinese naval vessels twice training their radars on their Japanese counterparts – will only have ratcheted up their concerns.
These doomful predictions came as Abe set out his vision of a more hard-nosed Japan that will no longer be pushed around when it comes to sovereignty issues. In his December op-ed on Project Syndicate Abe accused Beijing of performing “daily exercises in coercion” and advocated a “democratic security diamond” comprising Australia, India, Japan and the U.S. (rehashing a concept from the 2007 Quadrilateral Security Dialogue). He then proposed defense spending increases – Japan’s first in a decade – and strengthened security relations with the Philippines and Vietnam, which both share Tokyo’s misgivings about China’s intentions. An alliance-affirming trip to the U.S.is expected soon, and there is talk of Japan stationing F-15s on Shimojijima, close to the disputed Senkaku/Diaoyu islands.
However, Abe would argue that he is acting to strengthen Japan in order to balance a rising China and prevent a conflict, rather than creating the conditions for one. And he undoubtedly has a more sanguine view of the future of Sino-Japanese relations than those who see war as an ever more likely outcome. Of course, there is a chance that Chinese and Japanese ships or aircraft will clash as the dispute over the Senkaku/Diaoyu islands rumbles on; and, if they do, there is a chance that a skirmish could snowball unpredictably into a wider conflict.
But if Shinzo Abe is gambling with the region’s security, he is at least playing the odds. He is calculating that Japan can pursue a more muscular foreign policy without triggering a catastrophic backlash from China, based on the numerous constraints that shape Chinese actions, as well as the interlocking structure of the globalized environment which the two countries co-inhabit. Specifically, there are seven reasons to think that war is a very unlikely prospect, even with a more hawkish prime minister running Japan:
1. Beijing’s nightmare scenario. China might well win a war against Japan, but defeat would also be a very real possibility. As China closes the book on its “century of humiliation” and looks ahead to prouder times, the prospect of a new, avoidable humiliation at the hands of its most bitter enemy is enough to persuade Beijing to do everything it can to prevent that outcome (the surest way being not to have a war at all). Certainly, China’s new leader, Xi Jinping, does not want to go down in history as the man who led China into a disastrous conflict with the Japanese. In that scenario, Xi would be doomed politically, and, as China’s angry nationalism turned inward, the Communist Party probably wouldn’t survive either.
2. Economic interdependence. Win or lose, a Sino-Japanese war would be disastrous for both participants. The flagging economy that Abe is trying to breathe life into with a $117 billion stimulus package would take a battering as the lucrative China market was closed off to Japanese business. China would suffer, too, as Japanese companies pulled out of a now-hostile market, depriving up to 5 million Chinese workers of their jobs, even as Xi Jinping looks to double per capita income by 2020. Panic in the globalized economy would further depress both economies, and potentially destroy the programs of both countries’ new leaders.
3. Question marks over the PLA’s operational effectiveness.The People’s Liberation Army is rapidly modernizing, but there are concerns about how effective it would prove if pressed into combat today – not least within China’s own military hierarchy. New Central Military Commission Vice-Chairman Xu Qiliang recently told the PLA Daily that too many PLA exercises are merely for show, and that new elite units had to be formed if China wanted to protect its interests. CMC Chairman Xi Jinping has also called on the PLA to improve its readiness for “real combat.” Other weaknesses within the PLA, such as endemic corruption, would similarly undermine the leadership’s confidence in committing it to a risky war with a peer adversary.
4. Unsettled politics. China’s civil and military leaderships remain in a state of flux, with the handover initiated in November not yet complete. As the new leaders find their feet and jockey for position amongst themselves, they will want to avoid big foreign-policy distractions – war with Japan and possibly the U.S. being the biggest of them all.
5. The unknown quantity of U.S. intervention. China has its hawks, such as Dai Xu, who think that the U.S. would never intervene in an Asian conflict on behalf of Japan or any other regional ally. But this view is far too casual. U.S. involvement is a real enough possibility to give China pause, should the chances of conflict increase.
6. China’s policy of avoiding military confrontation. China has always said that it favors peaceful solutions to disputes, and its actions have tended to bear this out. In particular, it continues to usually dispatch unarmed or only lightly armed law enforcement ships to maritime flashpoints, rather than naval ships.There have been calls for a more aggressive policy in the nationalist media, and from some military figures; but Beijing has not shown much sign of heeding them. The PLA Navy made a more active intervention in the dispute this week when one of its frigates trained its radar on a Japanese naval vessel. This was a dangerous and provocative act of escalation, but once again the Chinese action was kept within bounds that made violence unlikely (albeit, needlessly, more likely than before).
7. China’s socialization. China has spent too long telling the world that it poses no threat to peace to turn around and fulfill all the China-bashers’ prophecies. Already, China’s reputation in Southeast Asia has taken a hit over its handling of territorial disputes there. If it were cast as the guilty party in a conflict with Japan –which already has the sympathy of many East Asian countries where tensions China are concerned – China would see regional opinion harden against it further still. This is not what Beijing wants: It seeks to influence regional affairs diplomatically from within, and to realize “win-win” opportunities with its international partners.
In light of these constraints, Abe should be able to push back against China – so long as he doesn’t go too far. He was of course dealt a rotten hand by his predecessor, Yoshihiko Noda, whose bungled nationalization of the Senkaku/Diaoyu islands triggered last year’s plunge in relations. Noda’s misjudgments raised the political temperature to the point where neither side feels able to make concessions, at least for now, in an attempt to repair relations.
However, Abe can make the toxic Noda legacy work in his favor. Domestically, he can play the role of the man elected to untangle the wreckage, empowered by his democratic mandate to seek a new normal in Sino-Japanese relations. Chinese assertiveness would be met with a newfound Japanese assertiveness, restoring balance to the relationship. It is also timely for Japan to push back now, while its military is still a match for China’s. Five or ten years down the line this may no longer be the case, even if Abe finally grows the stagnant defense budget.
Meanwhile, Abe is also pursuing diplomatic avenues. It was Abe who mended Japan’s ties with China after the Koizumi years, and he is now trying to reprise his role as peacemaker, having dispatched his coalition partner, Natsuo Yamaguchi, to Beijing reportedly to convey his desire for a new dialogue. It is hardly surprising, given his daunting domestic laundry list, that Xi Jinping should have responded encouragingly to the Japanese olive branch.
In the end, Abe and Xi are balancing the same equation: They will not give ground on sovereignty issues, but they have no interest in a war – in fact, they must dread it. Even if a small skirmish between Chinese and Japanese ships or aircraft occurs, the leaders will not order additional forces to join the battle unless they are boxed in by a very specific set of circumstances that makes escalation the only face-saving option. The escalatory spiral into all-out war that some envisage once the first shot is fired is certainly not the likeliest outcome, as recurrent skirmishes elsewhere – such as in Kashmir, or along the Thai-Cambodian border – have demonstrated.
The post 7 Reasons China and Japan Won’t Go To War appeared first on The Diplomat.
Political energy is a plus only when it’s wisely deployed however, and some fear that Abe is picking a fight he can’t win when it comes to his hardline stance on China.
Rather than attempting to soothe the tensions that built between Beijing and Tokyo in 2012, Abe has struck a combative tone, especially concerning their dispute over the Senkaku/Diaoyu Islands – a keystone for nationalists in both countries. Each time fighter aircraft are scrambled or ships are sent to survey the likely flashpoint, we hear more warnings about the approach of a war that China and Japan now seem almost eager to wage. The Economist, for example,recently observed that, “China and Japan are sliding towards war,” while Hugh White of the Australian National University warned his readers:
“Don't be too surprised if the U.S. and Japan go to war with China [in 2013].” News this week of another reckless act of escalation – Chinese naval vessels twice training their radars on their Japanese counterparts – will only have ratcheted up their concerns.
These doomful predictions came as Abe set out his vision of a more hard-nosed Japan that will no longer be pushed around when it comes to sovereignty issues. In his December op-ed on Project Syndicate Abe accused Beijing of performing “daily exercises in coercion” and advocated a “democratic security diamond” comprising Australia, India, Japan and the U.S. (rehashing a concept from the 2007 Quadrilateral Security Dialogue). He then proposed defense spending increases – Japan’s first in a decade – and strengthened security relations with the Philippines and Vietnam, which both share Tokyo’s misgivings about China’s intentions. An alliance-affirming trip to the U.S.is expected soon, and there is talk of Japan stationing F-15s on Shimojijima, close to the disputed Senkaku/Diaoyu islands.
However, Abe would argue that he is acting to strengthen Japan in order to balance a rising China and prevent a conflict, rather than creating the conditions for one. And he undoubtedly has a more sanguine view of the future of Sino-Japanese relations than those who see war as an ever more likely outcome. Of course, there is a chance that Chinese and Japanese ships or aircraft will clash as the dispute over the Senkaku/Diaoyu islands rumbles on; and, if they do, there is a chance that a skirmish could snowball unpredictably into a wider conflict.
But if Shinzo Abe is gambling with the region’s security, he is at least playing the odds. He is calculating that Japan can pursue a more muscular foreign policy without triggering a catastrophic backlash from China, based on the numerous constraints that shape Chinese actions, as well as the interlocking structure of the globalized environment which the two countries co-inhabit. Specifically, there are seven reasons to think that war is a very unlikely prospect, even with a more hawkish prime minister running Japan:
1. Beijing’s nightmare scenario. China might well win a war against Japan, but defeat would also be a very real possibility. As China closes the book on its “century of humiliation” and looks ahead to prouder times, the prospect of a new, avoidable humiliation at the hands of its most bitter enemy is enough to persuade Beijing to do everything it can to prevent that outcome (the surest way being not to have a war at all). Certainly, China’s new leader, Xi Jinping, does not want to go down in history as the man who led China into a disastrous conflict with the Japanese. In that scenario, Xi would be doomed politically, and, as China’s angry nationalism turned inward, the Communist Party probably wouldn’t survive either.
2. Economic interdependence. Win or lose, a Sino-Japanese war would be disastrous for both participants. The flagging economy that Abe is trying to breathe life into with a $117 billion stimulus package would take a battering as the lucrative China market was closed off to Japanese business. China would suffer, too, as Japanese companies pulled out of a now-hostile market, depriving up to 5 million Chinese workers of their jobs, even as Xi Jinping looks to double per capita income by 2020. Panic in the globalized economy would further depress both economies, and potentially destroy the programs of both countries’ new leaders.
3. Question marks over the PLA’s operational effectiveness.The People’s Liberation Army is rapidly modernizing, but there are concerns about how effective it would prove if pressed into combat today – not least within China’s own military hierarchy. New Central Military Commission Vice-Chairman Xu Qiliang recently told the PLA Daily that too many PLA exercises are merely for show, and that new elite units had to be formed if China wanted to protect its interests. CMC Chairman Xi Jinping has also called on the PLA to improve its readiness for “real combat.” Other weaknesses within the PLA, such as endemic corruption, would similarly undermine the leadership’s confidence in committing it to a risky war with a peer adversary.
4. Unsettled politics. China’s civil and military leaderships remain in a state of flux, with the handover initiated in November not yet complete. As the new leaders find their feet and jockey for position amongst themselves, they will want to avoid big foreign-policy distractions – war with Japan and possibly the U.S. being the biggest of them all.
5. The unknown quantity of U.S. intervention. China has its hawks, such as Dai Xu, who think that the U.S. would never intervene in an Asian conflict on behalf of Japan or any other regional ally. But this view is far too casual. U.S. involvement is a real enough possibility to give China pause, should the chances of conflict increase.
6. China’s policy of avoiding military confrontation. China has always said that it favors peaceful solutions to disputes, and its actions have tended to bear this out. In particular, it continues to usually dispatch unarmed or only lightly armed law enforcement ships to maritime flashpoints, rather than naval ships.There have been calls for a more aggressive policy in the nationalist media, and from some military figures; but Beijing has not shown much sign of heeding them. The PLA Navy made a more active intervention in the dispute this week when one of its frigates trained its radar on a Japanese naval vessel. This was a dangerous and provocative act of escalation, but once again the Chinese action was kept within bounds that made violence unlikely (albeit, needlessly, more likely than before).
7. China’s socialization. China has spent too long telling the world that it poses no threat to peace to turn around and fulfill all the China-bashers’ prophecies. Already, China’s reputation in Southeast Asia has taken a hit over its handling of territorial disputes there. If it were cast as the guilty party in a conflict with Japan –which already has the sympathy of many East Asian countries where tensions China are concerned – China would see regional opinion harden against it further still. This is not what Beijing wants: It seeks to influence regional affairs diplomatically from within, and to realize “win-win” opportunities with its international partners.
In light of these constraints, Abe should be able to push back against China – so long as he doesn’t go too far. He was of course dealt a rotten hand by his predecessor, Yoshihiko Noda, whose bungled nationalization of the Senkaku/Diaoyu islands triggered last year’s plunge in relations. Noda’s misjudgments raised the political temperature to the point where neither side feels able to make concessions, at least for now, in an attempt to repair relations.
However, Abe can make the toxic Noda legacy work in his favor. Domestically, he can play the role of the man elected to untangle the wreckage, empowered by his democratic mandate to seek a new normal in Sino-Japanese relations. Chinese assertiveness would be met with a newfound Japanese assertiveness, restoring balance to the relationship. It is also timely for Japan to push back now, while its military is still a match for China’s. Five or ten years down the line this may no longer be the case, even if Abe finally grows the stagnant defense budget.
Meanwhile, Abe is also pursuing diplomatic avenues. It was Abe who mended Japan’s ties with China after the Koizumi years, and he is now trying to reprise his role as peacemaker, having dispatched his coalition partner, Natsuo Yamaguchi, to Beijing reportedly to convey his desire for a new dialogue. It is hardly surprising, given his daunting domestic laundry list, that Xi Jinping should have responded encouragingly to the Japanese olive branch.
In the end, Abe and Xi are balancing the same equation: They will not give ground on sovereignty issues, but they have no interest in a war – in fact, they must dread it. Even if a small skirmish between Chinese and Japanese ships or aircraft occurs, the leaders will not order additional forces to join the battle unless they are boxed in by a very specific set of circumstances that makes escalation the only face-saving option. The escalatory spiral into all-out war that some envisage once the first shot is fired is certainly not the likeliest outcome, as recurrent skirmishes elsewhere – such as in Kashmir, or along the Thai-Cambodian border – have demonstrated.
The post 7 Reasons China and Japan Won’t Go To War appeared first on The Diplomat.
RUSSIA's Putin sacks Olympic official over delays
SOCHI, Russia (Reuters) - President Vladimir Putin dismissed a senior Russian Olympic Committee official on Thursday over rising costs and delays in construction work for the 2014 Winter Olympics in Sochi.
Did RUSSIAN Jets Violate JAPANESE Airspace?
Japan scrambled fighter jets after two Russian Su-27 fighter jets entered Japanese airspace over the territorial waters of Rishiri Island in Hokkaido the Japanese government said on Thursday.
“Today, around 03:00 (06:00 GMT), military fighters belonging to Russian Federation breached our nation's airspace above territorial waters off Rishiri island in Hokkaido,” Japan’s Foreign Ministry said, the BBC reported. Japan responded by scrambling two F-2 jets.
Russia denied the incident saying it had been holding military drills over the Kuril Islands this week but had not violated Japanese airspace.
A spokesperson for the Russian Defense Ministry said, “"Flights of military aircraft are … carried out in strict accordance with the international rules governing air space and do not violate the border of other states,” Yahoo! News reported.
Moscow and Tokyo have been locked in a dispute over the ownership of the Kurils Islands since WWII. There have recently been signs emanating out of Tokyo that suggested the Japanese government was looking to finally end the ongoing spat over the Islands. Last month on national television, former Japanese Prime Minister Yoshiro Mori proposed a solution to the conflict that would leave Russia in control over some of the islands. The Abe administration quickly distanced itself from this proposal, however, it has since expressed interest in ending the dispute.
If this latest incident is true, it would mark the first time that Russia has violated Japanese airspace since 2008.
“Today, around 03:00 (06:00 GMT), military fighters belonging to Russian Federation breached our nation's airspace above territorial waters off Rishiri island in Hokkaido,” Japan’s Foreign Ministry said, the BBC reported. Japan responded by scrambling two F-2 jets.
Russia denied the incident saying it had been holding military drills over the Kuril Islands this week but had not violated Japanese airspace.
A spokesperson for the Russian Defense Ministry said, “"Flights of military aircraft are … carried out in strict accordance with the international rules governing air space and do not violate the border of other states,” Yahoo! News reported.
Moscow and Tokyo have been locked in a dispute over the ownership of the Kurils Islands since WWII. There have recently been signs emanating out of Tokyo that suggested the Japanese government was looking to finally end the ongoing spat over the Islands. Last month on national television, former Japanese Prime Minister Yoshiro Mori proposed a solution to the conflict that would leave Russia in control over some of the islands. The Abe administration quickly distanced itself from this proposal, however, it has since expressed interest in ending the dispute.
If this latest incident is true, it would mark the first time that Russia has violated Japanese airspace since 2008.
HONG KONG: Why 'snake kings' are a dying breed in Hong Kong
Wrangling cobras to make a traditional soup is tough work – but fewer young Chinese are willing to do it
CHINA: Xi Jinping heads top-level Diaoyu task force
Xi Jinping will head a newly created task force created to monitor the dispute with Japan over the Diaoyu/Senkaku islands as tensions continue to build in the East China Sea. The territorial dispute over the uninhabited islands has escalated in recent weeks, with ships and airplanes from both sides squaring off in the disputed territory. [ more › ]
Subscribe to:
Posts (Atom)
Posts
