Q+A-What next for N.Korea after Chinese PM's visit?

Tue Oct 6, 2009 3:23am EDT

By Jack Kim

SEOUL, Oct 6 (Reuters) - Chinese Premier Wen Jiabao ended a three-day visit to North Korea on Wednesday, winning leader Kim Jong-il's pledge to return to international nuclear disarmament negotiations but not before it talks to the United States.

Analysts say Wen's visit will likely pave the way for fresh dialogue after months of tension heightened by a nuclear test and a series of ballistic missile tests by the North, but they doubt much new will come of its latest diplomatic overtures.

WHAT IS THE FRIENDLY GUEST TAKING HOME?

As expected, Wen did not go home empty handed. He won a pledge by Kim, albeit qualified, to return to the six-country talks Beijing hosts, a face-saving move for the premier of the only country the reclusive state can claim as a major ally.

China, loathe to see its influence as a diplomatic arbitrator diminish, is weary of Pyongyang's relentless push to hold direct and bilateral talks with the United States. But Kim likely assured Wen his country is willing to give the six-party talks another chance.

WHAT NEXT BETWEEN THE U.S. AND NORTH KOREA?

Special U.S. envoy for North Korea Stephen Bosworth is poised to visit the North as part of the two-way dialogue Pyongyang seeks. Bosworth will likely get a full debriefing by the Chinese before setting off, and probably go with a formula for a deal with the isolated state.

The key U.S. concern regarding the North's nuclear arms programme is the possibility of proliferation. Some type of assurance by Kim Jong-il on this issue is critical but he is unlikely to give up nuclear weapons yet. Experts suggest Kim may say he has "noted" U.S. concern about proliferation.

WILL U.S. DROP SOME SANCTIONS?

Nothing is more pressing for North Korea than to have sanctions imposed by the U.N. Security Council and U.S. State Department removed and to see desperately-needed economic aid to bolster its failing economy.

Washington may be willing to do this as long as it gets what it wants -- the North's assurance on proliferation. The United States does not care as much about what the North does about its ageing nuclear complex in Yongbyon but it may also take as a gesture of good will the North's promise to take apart some of the facilities there.

All this, however, will fail to convince sceptics in the U.S. administration and in the capitals of the other parties in the six-way talks because of the reminder of the cycle of hide and seek that ultimately led to the demise of earlier disarmament deals struck with the North in return for aid and diplomatic incentives.

As its last bargaining chip the North is likely to try to hold onto a uranium enrichment programme that it said it has successfully achieved. The proliferation risk for such a project is greater because of the smaller scale setup needed to produce weapons-grade nuclear material.

TWO-PARTY, FOUR-PARTY, OR SIX-PARTY TALKS?

With Kim's pledge to return to multilateral dialogue, North Korea finds itself in the comfortable position of being able to pick other arrangements for talks as a prelude to the stalled six-party talks. North Korea wants to institutionalise bilateral talks with the United States. Some experts say nothing would be more useful to effect change in the North's behaviour than to maintain a consistent channel of dialogue with it. To accommodate greater efficiency to dialogue, the parties may decide to drop Japan and/or Russia from the existing format for some aspects of the negotiations. The six-party forum is still valuable in securing the resources to compensate the North when needed. (Editing by Jonathan Thatcher and Jerry Norton)