Q+A-How can the US capitalize on Clinton N.Korea trip?

Fri Aug 7, 2009 5:54pm EDT

By Paul Eckert, Asia Correspondent

WASHINGTON, Aug 7 (Reuters) - Former U.S. President Bill Clinton's surprise visit to North Korea is still being analyzed for clues on whether Pyongyang is ready to return to nuclear disarmament talks after months of ratcheting up tensions.

As the Obama administration and U.S. experts on North Korea await a full briefing on Clinton's trip to free two jailed American journalists, following are answers to questions about what might happen next in U.S.-North Korean relations:

HAS THE U.S. CHANGED POLICY SINCE CLINTON'S VISIT?

No. State Department spokesman Robert Wood said on Friday that "the ball is in the North's court." He reiterated the U.S. insistence that Pyongyang, which has sought bilateral talks with Washington, must return to six-party nuclear negotiations that also involve China, Japan, Russia and South Korea.

The White House has similarly repeated that U.S. policy has been unchanged by Clinton's mission to retrieve two journalists who were sentenced to 12 years of hard labor after illegally entering North Korea.

Washington has insisted that U.N. sanctions adopted after North Korea tested a nuclear device in May continue to be enforced. While Clinton was in Pyongyang, the U.S. envoy for those sanctions, Philip Goldberg, was visiting Russia to press the case for tightening an arms embargo and cutting financial ties with Pyongyang.

WHAT MIGHT BE NORTH KOREA'S NEXT STEP?

North Korea watchers say Pyongyang either issued feelers to Washington about talks through Clinton or will try to do so through its U.N. mission in New York or another diplomatic channel, such as in China.

North Korea, which has declared repeatedly that it views the six-party talks as dead, is likely to try to seek bilateral talks with the United States. If the past is any guide, Pyongyang will seek piecemeal negotiations spread out over time -- a formula that the Obama administration has rejected because it has failed in 15 years of previous U.S. attempts to end North Korea's nuclear programs.

Brookings Institution analyst Dennis Wilder, the George W. Bush White House's top official for East Asian affairs, noted that top Obama administration officials have pointedly said they will not reward North Korea again for actions it had already promised to take.

Pyongyang could send a clear signal that it was serious about returning to the diplomatic table by declaring that its main atomic facility at Yongbyon was shut down and inviting U.N. nuclear inspectors to return and resume monitoring the facilities that North Korea used to produce the plutonium for its weapons, said Wilder.

WHAT IS THE MAIN CHALLENGE FOR THE OBAMA ADMINISTRATION?

The Obama administration needs to capitalize on the potential momentum created by Clinton's visit while being sure to keep allies Japan and South Korea and regional powers China and Russia on board with a multilateral approach that would also include bilateral U.S.-North Korean contacts. Doing so "entails a great deal of creativity for the diplomats and policymakers involved -- not only in the United States but among the friends and allies involved in the six party talks," said Korea expert John Park of the U.S. Institute of Peace.

A big challenge is to keep up pressure on North Korea through the U.N. sanctions and resist efforts by China and Russia to back off at signs Pyongyang is willing to talk, when the North's obligation under those strictures is to give up its nuclear programs.

"The Chinese are somewhat susceptible to negotiations for negotiations sake and that's going to our toughest thing," Wilder said. Assuaging Japanese and South Korean concerns that the United States might accept less than the goal of full nuclear disarmament by Pyongyang remains another challenge. (Editing by Bill Trott)