Q+A-Japan's Ozawa: How much clout, why does it matter?

Mon Sep 14, 2009 3:39am EDT

By Linda Sieg

TOKYO, Sept 14 (Reuters) - Concerns are simmering that Japan's incoming government will be beset by policy haggling if, as some analysts suspect, former Democratic Party leader Ichiro Ozawa carries too much clout.

Yukio Hatoyama, who is set to become prime minister on Wednesday, is expected to meet Ozawa on Monday to discuss party and cabinet personnel.

Following are some questions and answers about Ozawa, his likely influence, and why it matters.

WHO IS OZAWA?

A protege of Kakuei Tanaka, an ex-premier who built Japan's postwar political regime of pork-barrel, party factions and vested interests, Ozawa was a rising star in the LDP until he bolted the party in 1993 with dozens of other lawmakers.

The defections sparked a chain reaction that resulted in the long-ruling conservative party being ousted, albeit briefly, by a multi-party, reformist coalition.

Ozawa was not in the cabinet headed by then-premier Morihiro Hosokawa but was widely seen as a "shadow shogun" who pulled the strings behind the scenes and ultimately helped cause the downfall of the shaky coalition with his back-room manoeuvering.

He has spent the past 15 years trying to cultivate a viable alternative to the LDP, and took the helm of the Democrats in 2006 after their merger with his small Liberal Party.

Ozawa, widely credited with engineering a victory for the Democrats and smaller allies in a 2007 upper house election, stepped down as party leader in May after a close aide was charged with accepting illegal corporate donations.

But his expertise at campaign strategy was critical to the Democrats' victory in the Aug. 30 lower house poll, when the party won 308 of the 480 seats in the chamber.

WHY DOES OZAWA'S CLOUT MATTER?

If Ozawa acts as a rival power centre to the cabinet, that would undercut a key Democratic campaign pledge to centralise decisions in the cabinet, doing away with the party-cabinet haggling that characterised past LDP administrations to make policy formation more transparent and efficient.

His image as an old-style politician could also damage the Democrats' standing among wary voters, many of whom opted for a change of government more because they were frustrated with the LDP than out of enthusiasm for the Democratic Party.

If Ozawa interferes in policies with an eye to wooing voters ahead of the upper house poll, that could push the party toward costly steps that would inflate an already huge public debt.

Ozawa has long advocated a diplomatic stance more independent of Japan's close security ally the United States -- although he is by no means anti-American. His intervention in foreign affairs could complicate Hatoyama's efforts to keep the alliance on an even keel even as he tries to modernise the relationship.

HOW MUCH CLOUT DOES OZAWA HAVE?

Even after resigning, Ozawa's backing for Hatoyama was critical to Hatoyama's victory in the subsequent leadership race over Katsuya Okada, who was more popular with ordinary voters.

The Democrats' huge win in the lower house poll, which saw a large number of inexperienced candidates win seats, is generally seen as having bolstered Ozawa's clout in the party because he is one of the few party executives with the skill needed to train the new parliamentarians, many of whom will be loyal to him.

"There's no doubt there is a dual power structure. It's Ozawa who has the real authority," said Mikitaka Masuyama, a professor at the National Graduate Institute for Policy Studies.

Ozawa's talent for campaigning will also be vital for the Democrats, who face an upper house election in mid-2010 and want to gain a majority in the chamber on their own so they do not have to pay so much attention to two small allies whose cooperation is currently needed to enact laws smoothly.

A loss for the new ruling parties in the upper house would also revive a parliamentary deadlock and stymie policy-making.

Some analysts say, though, that estimations of Ozawa's influence over policy and personnel are exaggerated. "I think Hatoyama will choose his personnel pretty freely. But Hatoyama is not the kind of person who pushes his own views and clashes with others," said Kazuhisa Kawakami, a professor at Meiji Gakuin University. "He will listen to what Ozawa has to say, but also Maehara, Noda and others who have power within the Democratic Party. He tends to try to balance things out." (Additional reporting by Isabel Reynolds and Chisa Fujioka; Editing by Jeremy Laurence)