Afghanistan, SOFA agreement unlikely to cause difficulties on Obama's Japan visit

Afghanistan, SOFA agreement unlikely to cause difficulties on Obama's Japan visit

www.chinaview.cn 2009-10-15 17:10:00

by Richard Smart

TOKYO, Oct. 15 (Xinhua) -- When Nobel Peace Prize-winning U.S. President Barack Obama visits Japan on Nov. 12 and 13, two items that are likely to be high on the agenda are Japan's future role in Afghanistan and what to do about the U.S. military Status of Forces Agreement (SOFA) in Okinawa.

While these issues are likely to garner great media attention, however, it is likely that either Obama or Japan's Prime Minister Yukiuo Hatoyama will allow them to harm the relationship between the two countries.

"I think these sorts of issues get hashed out lower down and the (two nations) are not ready to do that yet. I think it is in the U.S. interest to take another look at the (SOFA) agreement, but I don't think anybody wants to go back to a full-scale renegotiation, it was messy enough and took long enough the first time around," said Jeff Kingston, a professor at Temple University in Tokyo.

"This visit is more of a welcome to Japan for Obama," he said.

In August, when the Democratic Party of Japan (DPJ) took power in a landslide victory against the LDP, it did so campaigning on amanifesto that proposed a "re-examining (of) the realignment of the U.S. military forces in Japan" and eradicating terrorism through "the implementation of economic assistance, strengthening of government institutions, and humanitarian and reconstruction activities."

Since then, a number of government politicians have expressed their hope that the SOFA agreement will be reconsidered and on Wednesday, Parliamentary Defense Secretary Akihisa Nagashima told the White House that Japan would not renew its refueling mission in the Indian Ocean, which supports military operations in Afghanistan, when its current term expires in January.

Despite this, the United States will be well aware of Japan's willingness to contribute to the war on terrorism in other ways.

"The Japanese comfort level is in human security, which means boots on the ground contributing to development through engineers, doctors, educators. Those sorts of people," Kingston said.

At a news conference earlier this month, Foreign Minister Katsuya Okada echoed this sentiment, saying: "We are looking to the future to try and improve the situation in Afghanistan. I am sure there are a lot of different motivations for joining the Taliban, but one of them seems to be that people have no other sources of income. There for we are looking at offering income guarantees and vocational training so people will not have to turn to the Taliban but will be able to support their families in other ways."

With British Prime Minister Gordon Brown announcing on Wednesday that more troops from his nation will be sent to the region on the condition of additional NATO and Afghan help to stabilize the region and Obama close to making a decision on a U.S. troop increase to the region, it seems that moves are already afoot to compensate for, among other things, the depletion of Japan's military presence in the region.

GET OFF THE 'SOFA'?

In foreign policy, the other area that has dominated the early days of the Hatoyama government has been what to do about the U.S. troops that are based in Okinawa. This issue has proved to be emotive and has been taken up particularly by the DPJ's coalition partner the People's New Party.

Despite the emotion surrounding the debate, there does seem to be plenty of space for maneuverability. On Tuesday, Okinawa Governor Hirokazu Nakaima said he was open to the bases remaining in the prefecture but being kept as far away from residential areas as possible.

That said, there is no doubt most in the prefecture would prefer to see U.S. troops out of the area for good. "Japan is within its rights to want to insist that the whole SOFA agreement is renegotiated and there are real world consequences of political landslides," said Kingston.

"The American side needs to recognize that. At the very least the U.S. will have to give the DPJ some face-saving concessions," the professor said.

The Obama administration would also do well to remember that it has made policy U-turns in its first year in power.

In September, much to the consternation of some countries in eastern Europe, Obama announced the decision to scrap the Bush-era planned missile defense system, which countries such as Poland believed would allow them to become more prominent strategic partners with the U.S.

Kingston points out that there is enough wiggle room on these issues to prevent it from becoming a thorn in the side of Obama's visit.

"Does the U.S. military really need to have two major air bases in Okinawa? It's basically service rivalry. The marines say 'this is ours' and the air forces say 'this is ours.' There is the way the agreement could change, though it would be preferable for the Japanese if the forces were just sent to Guam," Kingston said.

With these points in mind, there seems to be little doubt that the latest Nobel Peace Prize winner will be treated to photo opportunities, a friendly welcome and a reaffirmation of the strong bonds between his nation and Japan when he visits the country next month.

Editor: Lin Zhi